Look to California - The old saw is still true
When I first became aware of culture and then business someone told me to keep an eye on what happens in California. What ever goes on there will eventually make its way across the country. Over the past 20 years or so there have been ups and downs in that theory. The dot com bubble and the rise of social conservatism over business conservatism put a big dent in that theory up until now.
The defeat of the immigration bill this week has renewed my faith in the old saw, Look to California. Remember when Pete Wilson was Governor of California. Maybe not. Anyway he led the fight for a major anti-immigration initiative. Hispanic voters who normally lean conservative turned against the Republican Party with a vengeance. They threw Pete Wilson out for an old line Democrat and continue to vote heavily Democratic today. (I consider Arnold to be a liberal Republican or conservative Democrat.)
Now the social conservatives have defeated the immigration bill. As in California Hispanic Americans are not happy with the party of social conservatism, the Republicans. In 2008 I expect the Hispanic vote to tip significantly to the Democrats.
What does that mean for business? Depends on how smart the Democrats are. Certainly taxes will go up, but health care costs may go down. Immigrant labor will be more readily available. There will probably be more protectionist tendencies in our trade policy. Our balance of trade has a chance to improve, which will mean a whole bunch of different investment strategies.
If you think of any others let me know.
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